All Posts By: Jordan Pace

effective betting sample size

Why 100 Betting Results May Be Far Less Than 100 Independent Tests

A betting model can report 100 predictions, a 60% win rate and an impressive historical return without having produced 100 independent pieces of evidence. When multiple predictions depend on the same games, players or market conditions, their outcomes may be correlated. This creates a problem for anyone evaluating betting-model performance: the number of recorded bets […]

betting ROI settlement rules

The Same Betting Record Can Show Three Different ROIs—Here Is Why

Two betting performance reports can use the same results, show the same financial loss and still calculate different return-on-investment (ROI) percentages. The difference may come down to how each report handles pushed, voided and refunded wagers. This creates a problem for anyone evaluating betting analytics. A dashboard can display an accurate profit figure while calculating […]

draftkings

The Bonus Knows Your Habits: DraftKings and the AI Targeting Line

A sportsbook bonus looks simple: place a wager, receive a boost, keep playing. But Massachusetts’ review of DraftKings has put sportsbook AI promotions under a sharper question: when an offer is selected from a customer’s behavior, is it useful personalization or a calculated nudge delivered when resistance may be weakest? The issue extends beyond Massachusetts […]